Spot Premiums Remain High With Sluggish Trading, Focus on Successor's Stance and Meeting Minutes Risks [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

This week, the US Congress passed a "temporary funding bill," removing the risk of a fiscal shutdown and providing a short-term boost to market sentiment. Additionally, renewed conflicts in the Middle East led to a return of safe-haven funds, with ETF holdings stopping their decline and rebounding, amplifying silver's volatility. On November 12, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a 2025 FOMC voter) unexpectedly announced his early retirement "for family reasons." The market interpreted this as the departure of a "dovish voter," and with his successor yet to make a statement, policy uncertainty increased. Following the announcement, the US dollar fell sharply by 0.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 6 basis points, and silver prices surged back to $53. However, if the successor leans hawkish or the Fed minutes indicate a "higher threshold for rate cuts," silver prices may give up their gains.

[Economic Data] Bullish: The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November was 50.3, down from the previous value of 53.6 and below expectations of 53.2.
Bearish: The preliminary reading of the one-year inflation expectation for November was 4.7%, up from the previous value of 4.60% and above expectations of 4.6%.

[Spot Market] In China's domestic silver spot market, spot premiums remained stable this week. By the end of the week, large-scale silver ingots were trading at a premium of 20-25 yuan/kg against the TD contract, while national standard silver suppliers were offering a premium of 10-20 yuan/kg against the SHFE December 2025 silver futures contract. Despite the significant rise in silver prices, premiums stayed high, only showing a slight decrease towards the end of the week. The profit margins for downstream products such as silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste saw some relief, but overall, consumption was still driven by essential needs, with both supply and demand remaining weak, leading to generally low trading volumes.

PV Silver Paste: This week, the reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste was 7,331-7,956 yuan/kg; the reference average price for solar cell front-side finger was 11,032-11,968 yuan/kg; and the reference average price for solar cell front-side busbar was 10,982-11,918 yuan/kg.